Hot off the commodity presses to you!

CH04 O=269 1/4 HI=276 1/2 LO=268 3/4 CL=275 1/4

Okay, this is getting annoying. Depending on how close you placed your stops to the 276 level you may have been stopped out today. The market is ranging and isn't really giving us a good clue to where it wants to go.

It looks like price will continue higher for the short term and likely fail as we get closer to the contract highs. I've been bit twice now, think I'll sit aside for tomorrow.

2: MARCH COTTON

CTH04 O=6940 HI=6970 LO=6840 CL=6850

Another mediocre day for cotton. The market looked a little more bearish but not much; however it does look like we could be seeing some sort of reaction to the 6980 resistance area.

You could take a position short below the support on the low, but BE CAREFUL! Volume and open interest have both fallen off dramatically since the price decline began, suggesting the trend does not have support and might end soon.

• SELL March Cotton below 6840

• Stop 6890

• Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract

• Profit Target: 6510

• Approximate Profit Potential: $1600 per contract

• Risk/Reward Ratio: 6:1

• Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

3: MARCH SOYBEANS

SH04 O=805 HI=833 1/2 LO=805 CL=832 1/4

Beans continued higher today so we'll take our short position off the table. Notice where the market found resistance, right below at the 833 - 834 zone. I want to see how the market deals with the contract highs before I get back in - might see a failure there.

4: APRIL LIVE CATTLE

LCJ4 O=7150 HI=7288 LO=7135 CL=7288

While prices didn't go anywhere today, the market did look quite bullish. Notice how it closed the session right on the high.

To tell the truth, having a long position in Cattle makes me nervous with the possibility of another Mad Cow scare. Still looking to jump on the short side if we see it get to 7510, but we've got a little ways to go yet.

5: MARCH COCOA

COH04 O=1584 HI=1614 LO=1577 CL=1600

Not too surprised that cocoa didn't move too far today. In fact we could see prices chop around for a day or two before we see a move. There's a little more resistance at the 1615 area as a result of yesterday and today's near matching highs. You could take a little risk off the table by moving your exit orders above here. Hopefully we'll see the support give way tomorrow.

6: MARCH SUGAR

SBH4 O=563 HI=566 LO=557 CL=558

In spite of trading near record lows and looking overtly bullish, sugar refuses to go higher. Right now we've got the market trading at the contract lows which is a pretty significant level. If the market breaks the contract lows then it is likely that prices will continue lower.

While sugar is usually a relatively calm/predictable market, the recent price action smacks of uncertainty; therefore this trade might be a little riskier than usual.

• SELL March Sugar below 557

• Stop 568

• Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract

• Profit Target: 515

• Approximate Profit Potential: $470 per contract

• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3 3/4:1

• Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR

CDH4 O=7487 HI=7515 LO=7451 CL=7467

After channeling for almost a week, I'm beginning to wonder if we see a pullback in the CD or not. I think I might set up a trade in case the market tries to take the easy way out and continue short from here.

While it is possible to enter short below the support near the low, I might wait until the market breaks the 7440 level. I would risk the trade to nearby resistance at 7458 and look at snatching profits around 7350.

• SELL March Canadian Dollar below 7440

• Stop 7458

• Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract

• Profit Target: 7350

• Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract

• Risk/Reward Ratio: 5:1

• Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

8: MARCH SILVER

SIH4 O=614.50 HI=622 LO=609 CL=612.30

Things are looking up for silver...figuratively speaking. We saw the 621.50 area give the market some trouble today. If we see another bearish day tomorrow I would consider looking at a short position. But still suspect we might see a testing of higher resistance, maybe 630.

9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR

EDZ4 O=98.02 HI= 98.04 LO=97.915 CL=97.945

Got stopped out at break even today as the market made some serious declines. If prices continue lower tomorrow we could see them retreat to support at 9775.

Be cautious of serious support at 9787 which could cause problems. Once we're below here it should be a little easier to find our target.

• *SELL December Eurodollar 97.915

• *Stop 97.96

• *Approximate Risk Exposure: $135 per contract

• *Profit Target: 97.75

• *Approximate Profit Potential: $400 per contract

• *Risk/Reward Ratio: 3:1

• *Degree of Risk: Moderate

10: WILD CARD TRADE - APRIL GOLD

GCJ4 O=401.30 HI= 401.90 LO=397.80 CL=398.80

Gold found our short order today before falling off. The 401.90 high actually occurred during the over-night session so we are still short this market.

This isn't exactly fair but ...

Watching the bonds climb for the better part of the day my hands were tied on the long as stated in TT. Once it acheived the high of the day it started sliding back with some momentum. I jumped the gun a bit and sold the break of the top of the R&S band at 111-16 with a stoop at 111-21.

Once it hit 110-25, my target from the weekend, I bailed as fast as I could from that "what's most likely" point. Sure enough it turned and headed back north to settle at 111-02. Out at 110-30 for $562.

For tomorrow a break of 110-26 is a sell with a stop about 110-31. A rise and failure that does not go above 111-21 is also a sell as it comes back down ... 111-16 again? Yeah, I think so. The stop is 111-21.

2: MARCH SWISS FRANC

Same numbers for tomorrow.

A break of 7989 will get me short with astop at 7997 for risk of $100. To or thru 7979 brings the stop to B/E. Initial target is 7950, next is 7904 become very protective at both levels. RRR at 7950 is about 5:1.

3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR

I could not keep myself from laughing as I watched the CD today ... do ya' think someone was listening in on our webinar last night? Geesh. Opened and ... zoom, zoom, zoom ... right up to 7508. Creeped a bit more just to make smile even more and did a DT with 1/29. I spilled my Cheerios in haste to get the order done. Sold 7506 with a stop at 7517 for risk of $110.

I used the same rolls from TT over the weekend but used the weekend's entry point as my first roll after bringing it to B/E as we passed thru 7495. As we went thru 7455 I rolled to 7461 and was stopped out there 7462 for $440.

Since we settled at 7567. We can go back to the trade in TT from the weekend at the 7465 level. Isn't this cool?

4: APRIL GOLD

Nailed us at the open ... can you believe that ...to the penny!! For tomorrow ... a break of 398.00 get's me short with a stop at 399.10. A move above 401.50 get's me long with a stop at 399.90.

5: MARCH COCOA

We gapped open above my long entry so I passed. It came back down but not enough to find my short. Back up and we bought 1584 after the low at ... 1577 our stop from yesterday. Can you believe that? When we hit 1614 and failed I bailed. Out at 1608 for $240.

6: MARCH CORN

The strength at the open kept me a way. We got close to our 2.78 but not quite close enough.

7: MARCH SOYBEANS

Didn't see our number today. The strong move up sends me back to the drawing board. If it happens ... doubtful ... tomorrow I'll take another whack at 'em on a break of 8.00 with a very short stop. I'll try to sell above 7.99 and place the stop no higher than 8.01 1/4

8: MARCH SUGAR

See what I mean ... man this is a tough one to trade contracts in right now. October calls are looking appealing. Even cheaper now than what I wrote early in the week.

9: MARCH SOYBEAN MEAL

Stopped out at B/E

10: MARCH KC WHEAT

The towel has officially been thrown ... lol.

This Market Alert is Copyright (c) 2004 Traders Helping Traders, Erich Senft and Tom Loge'. All rights reserved.

Traders Helping Traders
Erich Senft and Tom Loge'

Erich@SupportandResistance.com
Tom@SupportandResistance.com

phone: 250.749.4191 or 805.483.6060

204 Cowichan Avenue East
Lake Cowichan, British Columbia
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